Monthly Archives: June 2016

EVP to oversee project management

Melia Homes, a home builder in Southern California, named Tim McSunas as its new executive vice president.

McSunas brings nearly 30 years of experience to the company. He held senior management roles in companies such as John Laing Homes, Pardee Homes, Taylor Woodrow Homes, The Shopoff Group and William Lyon Homes.

In these positions, McSunas developed skills in sourcing and controlling new land opportunities, negotiating purchases and sales agreements, conducting land feasibility, leading underwriting and developing new joint venture partnerships.

In his new role, McSunas will oversee operations, project management, product development, sales and marketing. He will also be involved in land acquisition opportunities.

“I’m excited to join Melia Homes’ executive team and look forward to getting involved in the progressive strategies that have shaped its visionary approach,” McSunas said.

The measure of Current Economic Conditions decreased 1% from last month from 104.2 to 103.2, and increased 0.9% from last year’s 102.3.

“Objectively, the probability of a downturn during the next five years is far from zero-this would be the longest expansion in 150 years if it lasted just over half of the five-year horizon,” Curtin said. “Nonetheless, the October rise may simply reflect a temporary bout of uncertainty caused by the election.”

The Index of Consumer Expectations decreased substantially at 7.1% from last month’s 82.7 and 6.5% from last year’s 82.1 to 76.8 in October.

Other sources are also reporting a drop in confidence. Consumers are less confident about the economy in October than last month, citing that, among other things, business conditions are bad, according to the Consumer Confidence Survey conducted by The Conference Board by Nielsen, a provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch.

“Prospects for renewed spending gains will depend on continued growth in jobs and wages as well as low inflation and interest rates,” Curtain said. “The small rise in interest rates now expected in December will have a minimal impact on spending.”

“Along with small increases in interest rates, consumers also anticipate a mild slowdown in job creation that is likely to prevent any further declines in the national unemployment rate,” he said. “To be sure, these changes are all anticipated to be small during the year ahead.”

Sentiment falls to lowest

The confidence that consumers have in the economy dropped in the beginning of October, but by the end of the month it seems to have plummeted.

The Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped to 87.2 in October, the same low recorded last September and the lowest level since October 2014, according to the Survey of Consumers conducted by the University of Michigan.

“The October decline was due to less favorable prospects for the national economy, with half of all consumers anticipating an economic downturn sometime in the next five years for the first time since October 2014,” Survey of Consumers Chief Economist Richard Curtin said.

The Index dropped 4.4% from last month’s 91.2 and 3.1% from last year’s 90. It is also down from the beginning of October, when it came in at 87.9.

An article by Jill Mislinski for Advisor Perspectives explains what this means historically:

The Michigan average since its inception is 85.4. During non-recessionary years the average is 87.6. The average during the five recessions is 69.3.

The measure of Current Economic Conditions decreased 1% from last month from 104.2 to 103.2, and increased 0.9% from last year’s 102.3.

“Objectively, the probability of a downturn during the next five years is far from zero-this would be the longest expansion in 150 years if it lasted just over half of the five-year horizon,” Curtin said. “Nonetheless, the October rise may simply reflect a temporary bout of uncertainty caused by the election.”

The Index of Consumer Expectations decreased substantially at 7.1% from last month’s 82.7 and 6.5% from last year’s 82.1 to 76.8 in October.

Other sources are also reporting a drop in confidence. Consumers are less confident about the economy in October than last month, citing that, among other things, business conditions are bad, according to the Consumer Confidence Survey conducted by The Conference Board by Nielsen, a provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch.

“Prospects for renewed spending gains will depend on continued growth in jobs and wages as well as low inflation and interest rates,” Curtain said. “The small rise in interest rates now expected in December will have a minimal impact on spending.”

“Along with small increases in interest rates, consumers also anticipate a mild slowdown in job creation that is likely to prevent any further declines in the national unemployment rate,” he said. “To be sure, these changes are all anticipated to be small during the year ahead.”

Continues to hover near 50 year low

Homeownership rates changed very little in the third quarter, and remain near lows not seen since 1965.

The homeownership rate decreased slightly from last year’s 63.7% to 63.5% in the third quarter, according to the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau. This is up just 0.4 percentage points from last quarter.

“Given other evidence from the release, my views swing more with the optimists than the pessimists,” Trulia Chief Economist Ralph McLaughlin said. “Household formation surpassed 1.1 million, climbing from 944,000 last quarter. About 560,000 – or nearly half – of these households were owners, up from a loss of 22,000 last quarter.”

“I think this is good news in light of the fact that millennials now make up the largest pool of potential new households,” McLaughlin said. “Though many are still living with their parents, they eventually will move out.”

“First, they will rent, and as they settle down, and then they will buy,” he said. “While we can’t know for sure they will own at rates of older generations, our survey work at Trulia shows 80% of Millennials want to own a home – the highest share of any cohort and the highest in the seven years we’ve run the survey.”

A chart from First American shows Millennials have a higher percentage of people with a college degree than any other generation. Historically speaking, homeownership rates are much higher among those with college degrees.